Demand Forecasting

Overview

Effective planning depends on knowing not just what demand looks like today, but what it will look like in one year, five years, or thirty. Our demand forecasting services help governments and public agencies anticipate how much their communities will need, and when, so that resource decisions are grounded in evidence rather than guesswork.

We apply advanced forecasting methods to a range of public services, producing projections that are technically rigorous, clearly communicated, and calibrated to your specific planning horizon and decision-making context.

Public Services Forecasting

Water and Utility Demand

Accurate water demand forecasting is essential for infrastructure investment, rate-setting, and long-range resource planning. We develop short-term and long-term demand models that account for population growth, land use patterns, weather variability, conservation program effects, and price elasticity. Our models are built to support both day-ahead operational decisions and multi-decade capital planning.

Transit and Transportation Demand

Understanding how ridership, traffic volumes, and mode choice will evolve allows agencies to right-size infrastructure investments and service levels. We develop demand projections that integrate demographic trends, employment patterns, development pipelines, and behavioral data to help transportation planners make confident, evidence-based decisions.

Facilities and Program Utilization

Libraries, recreation centers, community health clinics, and other public facilities must be sized and staffed to meet future demand. We project utilization trends for public facilities and programs, helping organizations plan capital improvements, staffing levels, and service expansions at the right time and in the right locations.

Revenue and Fiscal Forecasting

Sound budgeting requires reliable projections of tax revenues, fees, grants, and other income streams. We develop revenue forecasts that incorporate local economic drivers, demographic trends, and policy scenarios, giving finance teams and elected officials a defensible foundation for budget deliberations and long-range financial planning.

Our Approach

Building a Foundation with Historical Data

Reliable forecasts start with clean, well-organized historical data. We work with your team to compile time series on demand, usage, revenues, population, and other key indicators. Understanding past trends, and the factors that drove them, is essential for projecting the future with confidence.

Selecting the Right Forecasting Methods

We employ a range of quantitative techniques suited to the data and planning context, including trend extrapolation for stable series, econometric models that incorporate causal relationships, cohort-component methods for demographic projections, and ensemble approaches that combine multiple models to improve accuracy.

Scenario Analysis and Uncertainty

No forecast is certain. We provide scenario analysis that explores how outcomes would differ under alternative assumptions, such as accelerated growth, a major policy change, or shifting economic conditions. Sensitivity analysis helps you understand which variables matter most, so you can monitor the indicators that will determine whether projections hold.