Economic Forecasting

Overview

Sound planning requires looking ahead. Our economic forecasting services help local governments anticipate revenue streams, prepare for demographic shifts, and ground resource allocations in realistic projections rather than assumptions. We combine quantitative rigor with local knowledge to produce forecasts that are both technically sound and practically useful.

From short-term revenue estimates for the upcoming fiscal year to long-range projections spanning a decade or more, we tailor our forecasting approach to match your planning horizon and decision-making needs.

Our Approach

Building a Foundation with Historical Data

Reliable forecasts start with clean, well-organized historical data. We work with your finance and planning departments to compile time series on revenues, expenditures, population, employment, and other key indicators. Understanding past trends, and the factors that drove them, is essential for projecting the future.

Selecting the Right Forecasting Methods

We employ a range of quantitative techniques suited to the data and planning context. These include trend extrapolation for stable series, econometric models that incorporate causal relationships, and cohort-component methods for demographic projections. When appropriate, we use ensemble approaches that combine multiple models to improve accuracy.

Incorporating Local Economic Drivers

National and regional economic conditions shape local outcomes, but so do factors unique to your community, including major employers, development projects, policy changes, and population migration patterns. We integrate these local drivers into our models so that forecasts reflect the specific circumstances you face.

Scenario Analysis and Uncertainty

No forecast is certain. We provide scenario analysis that explores how outcomes would differ under alternative assumptions, such as an economic downturn, accelerated growth, or changes in state aid formulas. Sensitivity analysis helps you understand which variables matter most, so you can monitor the indicators that will determine whether projections hold.